On the future evolution of heatwaves in French cities and associated rural areas: Insights from a convection-permitting model
Sur l'évolution future des vagues de chaleur dans les villes françaises et les zones rurales associées : éclairages d'un modèle permettant la convection
Michau, Yohanna ; Lemonsu, Aude ; Lucas-Picher, Philippe ; Schneider, Michel ; Caillaud, Cécile
Urban areas are currently vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of such events, including heatwaves (HWs), on which we are focusing. Our aim is to quantify how the exposure to HWs will evolve with climate change and its impact on populations. We take advantage of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting scale (2.5-km) simulations coupled with the urban canopy model TEB, to capture urban effects (in particular urban heat island, UHI) and their interactions with regional processes. The climate simulations cover an extended area of France for historical (1986-2005) and future (2080-2099) periods using the RCP8.5 emission scenario. An HW indicator is applied to assess the respective exposure of urban and associated rural areas. CNRM-AROME projects a strong shift in the minimum and maximum temperature distribution to warmer values in the future, especially in rural areas. Related to the stronger rural temperature increase, the model projects a diurnal and nocturnal UHI reduction. Nevertheless, HW maximum intensity, duration and frequency are projected to increase in both urban and rural areas with climatic and geographical disparities. The analysis is ready to be applied for a multi-model approach within the framework of CORDEX FPS URB-RCC.</p>
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