IFS upgrade improves near-surface wind and temperature forecasts
Roberts, Christopher D. ; Ingleby, Bruce ; Geer, Alan ; Hólm, Elias ; Janousek, Martin ; Prates, Fernando ; Rodwell, Mark
The latest update to the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) is due to be implemented operationally in November 2024. IFS Cycle 49r1 is a major upgrade to the IFS model and associated data assimilation system. Among many other changes, it includes the assimilation of 2 m temperature observations; increased resolution and soft re-centring of the Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA); activation of the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrizations (SPP) scheme for model uncertainty in all ensemble applications; extended use of microwave data over sea ice; higher-resolution data from infrared satellite sounders; and improvements to land-surface modelling and assimilation methodology. This upgrade substantially improves 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speeds, particularly for the winter months in the northern hemisphere. Cycle 49r1 also brings changes to the resolution of the ocean wave model and the frequency of medium-range and sub-seasonal re-forecasts, which will now run on fixed days of the month.</p>
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