Rapidly increasing chance of record UK summer temperatures
Risque croissant de températures estivales record au Royaume-Uni
Kay, Gillian ; Dunstone, Nick ; Smith, Doug M. ; Brown, Simon J. ; Kent, Chris ; Lockwood, Julia F. ; Scaife, Adam A.
Année de publication
2025
The UK recorded its first exceedance of 40°C in July 2022. To assess the current chance of recurrence, we use a large climate model ensemble approach and find the 2023 return period to be 1-in-24 years (1/20-1/29 years confidence interval). However, the likelihood of 40°C has been accelerating and we estimate a 50-50 chance of another exceedance in the next 12 years, 4 years earlier than in a static 2023 climate. Far higher temperatures - over 45°C - and more sustained heatwaves may be possible today. Improved understanding of baseline exposure to temperature extremes could inform strategic heatwave preparation.</p>
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