Nowcasting and Early Warning Systems across WMO Regions Associations: A Pre-EW4All Assessment

Année de publication

2025

As extreme weather events increase in frequency and intensity, integrating new observation technologies, nowcasting, and probabilistic forecasting is essential for identifying, monitoring, and forecasting high-impact weather phenomena. Early warning systems (EWSs) are critical for protecting lives and assets, requiring a comprehensive approach that spans operational monitoring to effective warning dissemination. Evaluating these systems is necessary to identify strengths and address weaknesses. To assess the current state of nowcasting capabilities and EWSs, a survey was conducted among National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) across all regional associations of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This initiative was carried out under the World Weather Research Programme's Nowcasting and Mesoscale Research and Societal and Economic Research Applications Working Groups, in collaboration with the European Meteorological Network (EUMETNET). This article presents the survey's findings, focusing on the evaluation of nowcasting systems, operational use of EWSs, and NMHSs' perception of nowcasting tools. The results underscore the importance of these tools for decision-making and emphasize regional disparities, highlighting the critical need for capacity-building initiatives and multisector collaboration. These efforts aim to enhance access to forecasting tools, improve knowledge sharing, close communication gaps, and leverage advancements from more developed regions. This evaluation provides a baseline for assessing the impact of the United Nations Early Warning for All initiative, helping protect lives and livelihoods. Significance Statement The increase in high-impact weather events underscores the need to integrate observation technologies, nowcasting, and probabilistic forecasting to improve monitoring and prediction. Early warning systems (EWSs) are essential for protecting lives and assets, requiring a comprehensive approach from operational monitoring to effective alert dissemination. To evaluate nowcasting and EWS capabilities, a survey was conducted among National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) across all WMO Regional Associations. This article presents key findings, highlighting the importance of these tools for decision-making and the need for capacity-building, collaboration, and knowledge-sharing. The results provide a baseline for assessing the impact of the United Nations Early Warning for All (EW4All) initiative, aiming to enhance forecasting capabilities and safeguard communities.</div>

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