The Bayesian sinking in Porticello: a predictable convective windstorm?
Le naufrage du Bayesian à Porticello : une tempête convective prévisible ?
De Martin, Francesco ; Miglietta, Mario Marcello ; Gastaldo, Thomas ; Martinazzo, Michele ; Pavan, Federico ; Siena, Matteo ; Di Sabatino, Silvana
Année de publication
2025
The meteorological phenomenon that led to the Bayesian yacht sinking in Sicily at 0206 utc on 19 August 2024 is here investigated. A thunderstorm occurred during the sinking, but uncertainties exist whether a waterspout or a convective windstorm affected the ship. An in-depth analysis of available observations highlighted that the ship was likely struck by a convective windstorm. The predictability of the event was also investigated. Operational simulations performed with the high-resolution numerical model ICON initialised one day ahead pointed out that a convective wind gust hazard was predicted over the southern Tyrrhenian Sea during that night.</div>
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