Improving mesoscale aspects in the ensemble forecast initial conditions
Amélioration des aspects méso-échelle dans les conditions initiales des prévisions d'ensemble
Leutbecher, Martin ; Lock, Sarah-Jane ; Hólm, Elias ; Tsiringakis, Aristofanis ; Plesske, Marieke ; Hadade, Ioan
Année de publication
2026
The increase in horizontal resolution of the Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) from 18 km to 9 km in Cycle 49r1 of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) has sharpened the depiction of mesoscale features, enabling better representation of weather phenomena - especially in areas where observational data is sparse. While this has clear benefits, it has also exposed a challenge in how ensemble forecast initial conditions are constructed.</div>
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