Regional aerosol hygroscopicity influences radiative forcing globally
L'hygroscopicité régionale des aérosols influence le forçage radiatif à l'échelle mondiale
Deshmukh, Shravan ; Ferrer-Cid, Pau ; Romshoo, Baseerat ; Poulain, Laurent ; Barcelo-Ordinas, Jose M. ; Garcia-Vidal, Jorge ; Christodoulou, Aliki ; Bezantakos, Spyros ; Denjean, Cyrielle ; D'Anna, Barbara ; Formenti, Paola ; Mukherjee, Subrata ; Habib, Gazala ; Kumar, Prashant ; Huang, Shan ; Wu, Zhijun ; Wehner, Birgit ; Henning, Silvia ; Viana, Mar ; Petters, Markus D. ; Ahlawat, Ajit ; Pöhlker, Mira
Année de publication
2026
Aerosol hygroscopicity is a critical parameter for predicting radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, particularly under sub-saturated regimes where it drives complex aerosol-water interactions. Here, we show that externally mixed aerosols exert a stronger influence on direct radiative forcing than is currently represented in models. Incorporating our findings into radiative forcing calculations indicates a stronger aerosol cooling effect, especially at suburban sites, highlighting the importance of representing regional differences in mixing state. The conventional bulk-chemistry approach, which assumes volume-based mixing with limited spatial variability, exhibits low predictive performance for aerosol hygroscopicity (R² ? 0.61) at urban and suburban sites. Using an interpretable machine learning framework trained on geographically diverse, region-specific datasets can capture this variability with higher accuracy (R² ? 0.97), identifying key chemical compositional and mixing-state drivers.</div>
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