Igniting Insight: Evaluating NWS Red Flag Warnings within a Fire Partner Decision-Making Context
Mettre en lumière les informations clés : évaluation des alertes « Red Flag » du NWS dans le cadre du processus décisionnel des partenaires de lutte contre les incendies
Hoekstra, S. ; Vickery, J. ; Hatchett, B. J.
Année de publication
2026
This study examines how fire professionals use National Weather Service (NWS) fire weather products, with a focus on red flag warnings (RFWs). Based on 19 focus groups with 85 participants across all six NWS regions, we identify decision timelines of fire management and the fire decision support services used such as NWS products at various lead times before forecasted critical fire weather. We find that RFWs are widely used and consistently valued, but they play a supportive rather than an initiating role in operational decision-making. Participants described using RFWs to confirm existing strategies, enhance situational awareness?particularly for less experienced personnel?and lend credibility to public messaging and resource justifications. While RFWs are not typically the first signal of overall wildfire risk, they remain a trusted and essential component of a broader decision-making framework. Participants identified opportunities to improve RFWs by better incorporating fuel data, increasing cross-office consistency, and adding trend information. Rather than calling for major changes, these findings suggest that targeted refinements could improve the utility of an already valued and frequently used product within an evolving and information-rich fire management environment. Significance Statement This study demonstrates that across a sample of nationwide fire managers, current National Weather Service (NWS) fire weather products?particularly red flag warnings?are widely valued and effectively support fire management needs, though often in ways that differ from the product's original intentions. We report the decision timelines of fire management and the fire-related NWS products and other information used for decision support at different lead times before critical fire weather. In today's information-rich world of fire management, balancing innovation with targeted, intentional enhancements?such as better integration of fuel data, revising warning criteria, and improved interagency coordination?can ensure fire partners receive reliable, relevant, and responsive decision support services, products, and tools that meet the evolving challenges of dynamic fire environments and operational decision-making spaces.</div>
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