Climate-induced range shifts support local plant diversity but don't reduce extinction risk
Les modifications d'aires de répartition induites par le climat favorisent la diversité végétale locale, mais ne réduisent pas le risque d'extinction
Wang, Junna ; Oliveira, Brunno F. ; Moore, Frances C. ; Kozar, Daniel J. ; Fu, Yongshuo ; Dong, Xiaoli
Année de publication
2026
Climate change is driving widespread plant range shifts, yet their consequences for extinction and biodiversity remain unclear as realistic range shift dynamics have rarely been incorporated into global-scale biodiversity models. We integrate species-specific range shift velocities into species distribution models to project distributions of 67,664 plant species (18% of all global flora) by 2081 to 2100. Across emissions scenarios, 7 to 16% of species are projected to lose >90% of their range, placing them at high risk of extinction. These losses are driven primarily by climate-induced habitat loss, rather than dispersal limitation. Although range shifts offer little relief from global extinctions, they are projected to increase local plant richness across 28% of Earth's land. Facilitating range shifts may thus sustain local richness but not reduce global extinctions.</div>
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