Record-breaking May heat in the UK: contrasting the extreme temperatures of 2024 and 1944 using climate attribution
Canicule record en mai au Royaume-Uni : comparaison des températures extrêmes de 2024 et 1944 à l'aide de l'analyse d'attribution climatique
Holliday, Rebecca ; McCarthy, Mark ; Pirret, Jennifer ; Wallace, Emily
Année de publication
2026
This study quantifies the likelihood of May temperature extremes in present, natural (climatology based on pre-industrial forcings) and future climates. The attribution applies in the context of a May heatwave comparable to the record-breaking 1944 event and the persistent record-breaking monthly-mean temperature from 2024. We find the probability of exceeding the former May daily extreme temperature record anywhere in the UK remains relatively low in the current climate but has increased approximately three-fold compared to the natural climate. The latter 2024 monthly mean temperature is an extreme in the current climate but is 6-14 times more likely than in a natural climate.</div>
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