Integrating indirect greenhouse gases into climate frameworks
Intégration des gaz à effet de serre indirects dans les cadres d'action climatique
Ocko, Ilissa ; Lamarque, Jean-Francois ; Moch, Jonathan M. ; Abernethy, Sam ; Sun, Tianyi ; Grylls, Tom ; Roy, Arindam ; Hamburg, Steven P. ; Duke, Rick ; Duffy, Philip B.
Année de publication
2026
About 0.3°C, or 15%, of current climate warming relative to preindustrial levels lies outside most climate policies and accounting frameworks, because it is caused by non-greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that fall beyond the traditional "GHG basket" established under the Kyoto Protocol (<a data-xml-rid="R1" href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aee5790#core-collateral-R1" id="core-R1-1" role="doc-biblioref"><i>1</i></a>). Most of this warming (~80%) is from "indirect greenhouse gases" (iGHGs), such as carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), which have minimal direct effects on the climate themselves but trigger chemical reactions in the atmosphere that can increase the abundance of GHGs leading to subsequent warming (<a data-xml-rid="R1" href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aee5790#core-collateral-R1" id="core-R1-2" role="doc-biblioref"><i>1</i></a>). Exclusion of iGHGs from the basket largely reflects the state of knowledge when the Kyoto Protocol was drafted nearly 30 years ago. However, this basket (see the figure) continues to shape today's approach to climate action. We focus here on the importance of integrating iGHGs within goals, policies, plans, and accounting systems, to uncover new mitigation opportunities.</div>
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